With one week to go in the Championship, the promotion jigsaw slowly appears to be falling into place. Norwich City and Sheffield United have clinched automatic promotion to the Premier League. Three teams have sealed their places in the playoffs while three other teams are battling for the final playoff invite.
Norwich and Sheffield United will replace Fulham and Cardiff City in the English Premier League next season. But we still don’t know which of Cardiff and Brighton & Hove Albion will also be relegated, and any of six teams could grab the third spot on the elevator up to the top flight.
Three of Four Championship Playoff Spots Filled
Although last-minute surprises could change things, the top three playoff positions are almost settled. Leeds are practically assured of finishing third on the Championship table, making them the likely number one seed in the playoffs. West Brom and Aston Villa are virtually assured of finishing fourth and fifth, making them the second and third seeds in the playoffs.
We can assume West Brom and Villa will play each other in a fierce West Midlands derby in one of the playoff semi-finals. Leeds’ opponents in the other semi will be one of Derby County, Middlesbrough, and Bristol City. At time of writing, the Rams and Boro both had 70 points and Bristol City 66. Complicating things are the 2018-19 Championship fixtures– Boro only have one match left to play. Derby and Bristol, on the other hand, have an extra game in hand to play before the final matchday.
Given Derby’s vastly superior goal difference, the Rams need only win one of their final two matches to guarantee themselves a spot in the playoffs. The Rams will travel to Swansea on May 1 and finish up at home against West Brom on May 5.
Leeds, Villa Lead Championship Promotion Odds
Given Leeds will have pole position, you’d assume they would be the likeliest to gain promotion. Surprisingly, 10bet has Aston Villa as the current favourite to win the third promotion spot, at 2.90. Leeds are paying 3.00, Albion 4.50, Derby 6.00, Middlesbrough 21.00, and Bristol City are way back on 81.00. Marcelo Bielsa’s men were top of the Championship at Christmas, but somewhat surprisingly, weren’t able to secure automatic promotion.
10Bet also has a market on which team will grab the final playoff spot. Not surprisingly, Derby County is the favourite, at 1.15. If you feel like tipping an underdog, you can get great odds on Middlesbrough (5.50), and Bristol City (29.00). Be sure to read this 10bet review if you’re interested in league promotion betting.
Championship Promotion Race is Wide Open
Anything can happen in promotion playoffs, and it probably won’t be any different this year. After running the ruler over the three main contenders, it looks like there’s little to separate them in terms of form and head to head records.
Leeds achieved two wins from two matches against both Derby and Bristol City this season, but they’d be worried by the prospect of playing Boro, against whom they had two scoreless draws. West Brom would be confident against Villa, who they beat at Villa Park and drew with at the Hawthorns.
Assuming Leeds make the final, they’ll face a tough opponent either way. They beat WBA 4-0 at Elland Road earlier this season but lost the return fixture 4-1 at The Hawthorns. They won 3-2 at Villa Park and drew 1-1 in the return fixture- a hugely controversial one, and there are sure to be more fireworks if we have a repeat.
The one thing all these match results tell us is that Villa are shaky at home. Apart from that, it’s anyone’s guess as to who get promoted to the top flight.