On 28 May, Liverpool and Real Madrid will face off at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, just outside Paris, to determine the winner of the Champions League. The two previously vied for the title in 2018, with Madrid, then managed by Zinedine Zidane, walking away winners- the game famous for that Gareth Bale goal and the struggles of Lorius Karius in goal.
In 2019, Liverpool again reached the final, but this time went all the way by beating Tottenham Hotspur 2-0. Real were knocked out early that year by a young Ajax side. Neither LFC nor Real made it to the final in 2020 or 2021, but they did lock horns in the quarterfinals of the 2020/21 season, with the Spanish side prevailing 3-1 on aggregate.
Despite the fact that Real have historically won more matches when they have played against Liverpool, the early odds favour LFC to win. This has been a hot season for the Reds, especially since the start of the year, and the odds reflect the momentum they’ve been building. They’ve also won both the League and the FA Cup this season under the pressure of a shootout, and could thus be said to be better equipped to handle spot kicks than fellow British side Rangers, who lost 5-4 on penalties to Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa final.
The odds
As we mentioned above, the current odds favour Liverpool. Most bookmakers have Jurgen Klopp’s men with odds somewhere between -150 and -200. These aren’t particularly short odds- but they do suggest that Liverpool’s chances of winning at around the 60-65% range.
Most companies recognise that big events such as the Champions League Final draw in fans who don’t usually place bets- it is, after all, effectively the biggest game in football after the World Cup and the Euro finals. The emotions and excitement surrounding tournaments make it hard not to have a cheeky punt or two. It’s also often something to do with a group of friends while watching the match.
Due to this, the most reputable bookmakers in the country will generally have special offers to try and attract these new potential bettors. It can be the perfect time to look for a sportsbook that allows you to place free bets. Do your research and see the deals to help you narrow down where to bet as well- first check the odds, then check the offers.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid have won 13 Champions League titles, more than any other team- in fact, as many as the second and third teams combined (Milan’s 7 and Bayern Munich/Liverpool’s 6) They dominated in the 1950s-60s and had another run of wins in the 2010s.
On their route to the final, Real faced two of the top teams in Europe (PSG, Man City) as well the current title holders (Chelsea). They lost one leg in each round but managed to overcome and outscore their opponents on all three occasions.
That resiliency and mental strength, coupled with immense talent on the field makes them hard to beat. They are also a high scoring team, and much of that is down to Karim Benzema. The mercurial Frenchman has happily stepped in to replace Cristiano Ronaldo as the heart of the team, and is easily one of the first names gaffer Carlo Ancelotti will have down on his team sheet.
Madrid’s second leg win over Manchester City shows how resilient the team is. They had lost 3-2 to City in the first leg of the semi-final at the Etihad. No goals were scored until the 73rd minute at the Bernabeu when City’s Riyad Mahrez netted a stunner. All City had to do was to keep Madrid from scoring and they would be in the final.
Madrid’s Rodrygo scored in the 90th minute & followed it up with a second goal only a minute later, and City capitulated. Benzema then scored an audacious panenka penalty in the 95th minute and the miraculous comeback was complete.
Any team that can come back and win a match like Real did against City are a force to be reckoned with. No matter what the bookmakers might say- they certainly have a chance of winning the final.
Liverpool
Despite a somewhat slower start to their EPL season, Liverpool has been playing like the team that won the Champions League in 2019. They’re a vibrant, aggressive team that is making the most of their talent at all positions.
Jurgen Klopp’s team has been described as capable of working in “devastating harmony” and that’s about as accurate a description as possible. When they are playing well, the team has a fluidness that is beautiful to watch as a fan but must be intimidating to play against.
Liverpool have only lost one match in the CL this year- the second leg of their Round of 16 clash against Inter Milan, where they had won the first leg 2-0 at the San Siro. The Villarreal semi-final tie also showed how hard it is to rattle the Reds.
Unai Emery’s side got off to a quick start, scoring within the first five minutes and then again just before the half time whistle. Their lead from the first leg extinguished- there appeared to be an air of vulnerability surrounding the Reds, with Villarreal buoyed on by their home supporters. However they were a completely different team in the second half- Fabinho, Luis Díaz and Sadio Mane scored in quick succession and that was that.
Of course, things could always change. Injuries could play a role- Fabinho and Mo Salah are both currently in the treatment room, but Klopp reckons they’ll both be fit for the final. However, if they aren’t- Fabinho in particular, it could certainly affect the balance of the team.
Liverpool might not be able to pull off the legendary quadruple — winning the CL, PL and the two Cups, but a triple does still look like it’s on the cards. Madrid are a strong team, but on paper, it’s hard to look past the Reds.